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Pure Ganga in 10 years, Centre promises SC Read more: Pure Ganga in 10 years, Centre promises SC

Sunday, November 28, 2010

NEW DELHI: The Ganga will be pure and free of pollutants by 2020, the Centre promised before the Supreme Court on Friday.

Without dwelling on the past when nearly 1,000 crore was spent under the failed Ganga Action Plan initiated in the late 1980s, attorney general G E Vahanvati assured a Bench comprising Chief Justice S H Kapadia and Justices K S Radhakrishnan and Swatanter Kumar that the National Ganga River Basin Authority (NGRBA) headed by the prime minister would deal with river pollution in a comprehensive manner.

The work has been entrusted to a consortium of seven IITs -- Kanpur, Delhi, Madras, Bombay, Kharagpur, Guwahati and Roorkee. Vahanvati said discussions have been initiated with the World Bank for long-term support for NGRBA's work programme.

The National River Conservation Directorate under ministry of environment and forests in its affidavit said, "An assistance of $1 billion has been indicated in the first phase by the World Bank. A project preparation facility advance of $2.96 million has been sanctioned by WB."

But amicus curiae Krishan Mahajan, who was part of the public interest litigation filed by M C Mehta for cleaning of Ganga since 1985, was sceptical about the success and said unless the government was serious about punishing those responsible for polluting the river, no action plan would succeed in restoring Ganga's pristine glory. The Bench asked him to place his objection on record.

The directorate also talked of plans to save the gangetic dolphin, which was declared national aquatic animal on May 10. Terming the animal as critically endangered, it said it has set up a working group under the chairmanship of Dr R K Singh to submit an action plan.

"A list of other project proposals to be taken up under the World Bank assistance has been drawn up in consultation with the state governments. Investments totalling over Rs 1,200 crore have been identified by the states," it said.
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Ash from volcanic eruption in Mount Merapi may hit Indian region Read more: Ash from volcanic eruption in Mount Merapi may hit Indian region

MUMBAI: Seismic activity in Indonesia's Mount Merapi may cause a major volcanic eruption, with ash from it hitting the Indian region similar to what happened in Europe after a volcanic eruption in Iceland, according to a volcanologist at the Indian Institute of Technology here.

Activity monitored by the Merapi Volcanological Observatory has predicted a cataclysmic explosion that could wipe out everything in its path and, therefore, the Aviation industry has to keep a close watch on this volcano.

Lava flow is not a major concern but this strato volcano is characteristic of blowing tones of ash plumes and India could be on its fire line, said Dr D Chandrasekharam, Professor of the department of earth sciences, IIT-B and a board of director, International Geothermal Association told PTI today.

"A cataclysmic explosion or eruption is when the mountain basically explodes. Previous world cataclysmic eruptions were Mount Vesuvious that buried the Roman towns of Pompeii and Herculaneum, St Helens in Washington, Hekla in Iceland, and the well documented volcano of Pinatubo in Philippines," he said.

Merapi, one of Indonesia's most active volcanoes, dominates the landscape immediately north of the city of Yogyakarta in one of the world's most densely populated areas.

"According to the Merapi Volcanological observatory, the inflation rate of the surface of the volcano increased from 0.6 cm/day on 20th October to 42 cm/day on 24th October, just before the eruption," Chandrasekharam said.

"When the seismic signals are pointing towards a cataclysmic volcanic event, it is but natural to expect a major earthquake around this region which is a major active subduction area in the Indian Ocean," Chandrasekharam said.

"This is what exactly happened the day before when subducting Indian plate below the Sumatra trench slipped to fill the gap created by the volcanic eruption. This may be just the beginning if the Merapi Seismological prediction are true," he said.

Monday's earthquake in southern Sumatra of 7.5 magnitude did create fear not only for the Indonesian Islands but also to Andaman Nicobar group of Islands. This major tremor was followed by 13 aftershocks of magnitiude of 4.7 to 6.1 indicating adjustment by the sinking Indian plate.

"The focus started shifting from the depth of 14 km to 29 km, typical of sinking oceanic slab below a subduction zone. It appears that the volcanic activity has preceded by the earthquake activity. Such phenomena is usually restricted to the region around the volcanic activity as is commonly observed in other volcanic regions in the world like Mt Etna and Stromboli in Italy," Chandrasekharam said.

He also said that India is flanked by most active volcanoes -- The Piton de La Fournaise of the Reunion island in the Indian Ocean and a chain of active volcanoes over the Indonesian islands of Sumatra and Java, besides the Barren island volcano in the Andaman Sea off Port Blair, Andaman Nocobar islands.
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Haryana to implement strict ban on plastic bags, containers Read more: Haryana to implement strict ban on plastic bags, containers

CHANDIGARH: Haryana will strictly implement a ban on the manufacture, sale, distribution and use of virgin and recycled plastic carry bags, chief minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda said here Sunday.

A ban on littering of plastic articles such as plates, cups, tumblers, spoons, forks and straws at public places like national parks, wildlife sanctuaries, playgrounds, recreational places, tourist centres and religious places has also been imposed, according to fresh guidelines issued by the government.

"No person would manufacture, stock, distribute, recycle, sell or use carry bags made of virgin or recycled plastic. In areas having historical, religious and ecological significance, the use of all types of plastic articles such as plates, cups, tumblers, spoons, forks and straws shall also be banned," Hooda said in a statement.

"Containers made of recycled plastic cannot be used for storing, carrying or in the packing of foodstuffs. However, containers made of virgin plastic would be in natural shade or white colour," he added.

Hooda said Haryana state pollution control board would be the authority for the enforcement of the provisions of these directions. Hefty fine will be imposed on violators.

Officials said manufacturing units which violate these guidelines will have to pay a fine ranging from Rs.25,000 to Rs.50,000. On subsequent offences, licence or the consent letter of the unit shall be cancelled and the machinery and material used for manufacturing will be confiscated.

Retailers, vendors and other establishments found violating these directions shall be fined Rs.2,500-Rs.5,000.

Individuals found using cups, plates, tumblers, plastic carry bags or found littering plastic carry bags or articles shall be fined Rs.250-500 per offence.
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Over 300 industries in MP flout pollution control norms Read more: Over 300 industries in MP flout pollution control norms

BHOPAL: More than 300 commercial units in Madhya Pradesh are causing pollution by emitting harmful air and water effluents beyond the permissible limits, the State Pollution Control Board has said.

In reply to an RTI query, the State Pollution Control Board gave details of about 313 such industries which flouted standard pollution control norms during 2009-10.

170 such units are located in the industrial hubs -- Ujjain, Indore and Dhar, followed by 48 in Bhopal and 32 in Jabalpur. About 24 such commercial establishments are located in Gwalior, 18 in Guna, 12 in Rewa and two in Satna, it said.

Exercising his Right to Information, Environment activist Ajay Dubey filed an application seeking information on number of industries emitting waste in air and water beyond the norms set by the government.

"The reply is based on the result carried out by monitoring their waste during 2009-10," the RTI reply said.

"It is really a matter of concern. There are many more industries which are polluting the environment. We have decided to seek action against these harmful commercial establishments in the Green Tribunal," Dubey said.

There are many parameters set to measure air and water pollution done by industries. According to MPPCB official, the permissible limit is 6.5-8.5 ph value in per litre of water emission. The Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) and Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) limit is 250 and 30 mg per litre respectively.

Whereas for cement plant, the permissible limit is 50 micro gram per metre cubic of air emission and for 15 tonnes normal boiler's chimneys is 150 mg per annum cube of air emission, the official said.

Some of the prominent companies emitting harmful waste beyond the permissible limits are Grasim Ltd, Nagda, Prestige Food Ltd, Dewas, Tata International Ltd, Dewas and Madhya Pradesh State Cooperative Dairy Federation Limited, Bhopal.

Besides, Som Distilleries, Bhopal, Central Railway Coach repairs, Bhopal, Vindhyachal Distilleries, Raigad, Associated Alcohol and Breweries, Badwah, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, Indore,National Steel and Agro Industries Ltd, Dhar, Nicolas Piramal Ltd, Pithampur, J P Cement, Rewa, Mehar Cement, Satna,Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Bitoni, Jabalpur and J K tyre Ltd, Bamore, it said.

As per the reply, Ranbaxy India Limited, Curlon Industries and Kodak India Ltd, Malanpur and Godrej Consumers Product Ltd, Bhind are also found to flouting mandatory pollution control norms.

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EPA tackles Florida water pollution, cost a concern Read more: EPA tackles Florida water pollution, cost a concern

MIAMI: The US Environmental Protection Agency tightened water pollution controls in recession-hit Florida on Monday, but the state's citrus growers expressed concern the rules would cost business too much.

The final EPA standards set specific numerical limits on nutrient pollution levels allowed in lakes, rivers, streams and springs in a state which relies heavily on tourists who enjoy its waterways and the world-famous Everglades National Park.

This pollution is caused by phosphorous and nitrogen contamination from excess fertilizer, stormwater and wastewater that flows off land into waterways. The EPA estimates nearly 2,000 miles (3,200 km) of Florida's rivers and streams, as well as numerous lakes and estuaries, are affected.

Months of debate in public hearings preceded the finalization of the standards, with critics like Florida's $9 billion citrus industry saying their implementation could cost the sector billions of dollars it could not afford.

The EPA estimated the cost of bringing in the new rules would be in the range of $130 million to $200 million.

Announcing the finalized measures, EPA Regional Administrator Gwen Keyes-Fleming said the agency had sought to reconcile competing interests, but there was strong public support for cleaning up Florida's water and waterways.

"What we heard over and over in these public hearings is that the people of Florida know that clean, safe waters are essential to their health and Florida's economic growth," she said in a conference call with reporters.

The new anti-pollution standards will not take effect for 15 months and during that time the EPA would work closely with the state and interested parties on implementation strategies.

Explaining the rules would be flexible, "common sense" and site-specific, Keyes-Fleming said they would help protect hotels and tourist attractions that faced lost revenue through pollution making waterways too foul for swimming or fishing.

Florida's $60 billion-a-year tourism industry is its economic lifeblood and largest industry, with more than 80 million visitors a year bringing in 21 percent of all state sales taxes and employing nearly 1 million Floridians.

Keyes-Fleming added the anti-pollution measures would also help preserve home property values, an important consideration in a state where many own waterside homes and the home foreclosure rate is the second-highest in the United States.

"EXAGGERATED DOOMSDAY CLAIMS"
While stating the EPA had considered concerns over implementation costs, she rejected what she called "exaggerated Doomsday claims from certain interests."

"EPA believes that those that have estimated the cost to be in the billions are substantially overstating both the number of pollution sources that may be affected, as well as the types of treatment that are going to be required," she said.

Florida Citrus Mutual, the state's main citrus growers' association, said it was still evaluating the new EPA rules, but reiterated its worries over the impact on business.

"There is some concern this could have an adverse economic impact on all industries in Florida at a time when the economy is slumping," Michael W. Sparks, the group's executive Vice President and CEO, told Reuters in a statement.

He said while citrus growers understood healthy water was essential for the future of agriculture, "regulators must realize there is a balance that must be attained."

In 2008, the Florida Wildlife Federation filed a lawsuit against the EPA. This resulted is a settlement that required the agency to introduce specific nutrient pollution standards for Florida by November 2010.
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Himachal's Baddi industrial area to have effluent plant Read more: Himachal's Baddi industrial area to have effluent plant

SHIMLA: A common effluent treatment plant will be set up at a cost of Rs. 80 crore in the Baddi-Barotiwala-Nalagarh industrial area in Himachal Pradesh's Solan district to check industrial pollution, an official said.

"The state government has authorised Baddi Infrastructure Limited to set up a common effluent treatment plant at a cost of Rs.80 crore," a government spokesperson told IANS.

He said the firm has been authorised to collect, deposit, process and dispose of both municipal and industrial effluents. The treatment plant would be set up near Baddi.

The Baddi-Barotiwala-Nalagarh belt is one of the prominent industrial areas in Himachal Pradesh. Two-wheeler major Hero Honda has also approached the state government for land to set up a facility in the area.

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Save the world from climate change -- by computer Read more: Save the world from climate change -- by computer

OXFORD, United Kingdom: Computer gamers who like a challenge can now take on one of the toughest around: saving the entire planet, this time from climate change.

Billed as a strategy game with a social conscience, " Fate of the World" sees players try to protect the world's climate and resources while managing a growing population demanding more power, food and living space.

"'Fate of the World' is a scenario-based game where you run Earth for 200 years and you save it or potentially destroy it. The whole power is in your hands," said the game's British inventor Gobion Rowlands.

The player takes charge as head of the fictional Global Environment Organisation (GEO). They can impose policies such as banning logging in the Amazon rainforest, making all Europe's public transport run on electricity or slapping a one-child policy on the whole of Asia.

However, such power comes with grave consequences.

If, for example, you decide to bring down the birth rate to protect natural resources, the workforce could plunge and people could be forced to work until 80, triggering unrest against the GEO.

Gamers see the impact of their decisions: orangutans are saved from extinction, global temperatures drop by a degree; however, bad moves could see Europe battered by floods, or Africa ravaged by war.

"Even if they choose to destroy the world, they still learn more about the subject," said Rowlands, the 35-year-old head of video games developer Red Redemption, which employs 15 people at its base in Oxford, southern England.

The game was based on scientific, economic and demographic data from sources such as NASA, the United Nations and Oxford University.

"Fate of the World" was developed in partnership with academics working under Oxford University climate change expert Doctor Myles Allen.

The game "allows people to experience the decisions we are likely to confront and makes clear there are no easy answers", Allen said.

"Fate of the World" is a sequel to Red Redemption's 2007 "Climate Challenge" game produced by the BBC, which focused only on Europe.

Despite its straightforward graphics, the game has been welcomed by environmental and development groups, which were on board throughout the process.

"This game offers a new way of telling the climate change story and helps us to reach new audiences," said Ged Barker, the British digital campaigns leader for the Oxfam aid agency.

"Those who play the game will learn about climate change... without having to read lots of material that they might find boring."

The collaboration between Red Redemption, which is on its fifth computer game, and non-governmental organisations could go further. Rowlands is trying to negotiate a deal whereby a share of the profits go to their coffers.

A taster version is available to download now. The full version will cost 20 pounds (32.30 dollars, 23.60 euros) when it is released in February.

The French, Spanish and German versions come out in March.

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'Climate friendly' crops can help fight global warming: Study Read more: 'Climate friendly' crops can help fight global warming: Study

LONDON: American scientists have found a new way to offset the effects of global warming -- by planting "climate friendly" crops like wheat that reflect some amount of sunlight back into space.

Researchers at the University of Bristol found that the environment friendly crops -- spread across large fertile regions of North America and Europe -- would send a small percentage of the sun's light and heat back into space, and reduce the effects of the rising temperatures.

Different strains of crops such as wheat have significantly different levels of reflectivity, or albedo, they said.

Selecting the crops that reflect the most could make summers in Europe more than one per cent cooler, said Dr Joy Singarayer who led the study.

"Our current studies on crop reflectivity are at an early stage, but our initial results are really encouraging, as they suggest that simply by choosing to plant specific strains of crops, we could alter the reflectivity of vast tracts of land and significantly reduce regional temperatures," Dr Singarayer was quoted as saying by the Daily Mail.

"The concept of using increased reflectivity to manipulate our climate is, in fact, an ancient one -- humankind has for centuries painted settlements white to reflect the sun and keep cool.

"We could now realise the opportunities to do this on a much bigger scale via our agricultural plantations."

Arable land makes up more than 10 per cent of global land use, said the scientists. Particularly dense agricultural regions covered Europe, North America and Southern Asia.

The researchers used a global climate computer simulation to assess the potential for planting crops with high reflectivity.

It was found that a 20 per cent increase in crop albedo could provide Europe with an average summertime cooling of more than one per cent.

This was a fifth of the change needed to offset a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide levels in the next century, they said.

Under a more moderate global warming scenario, the method could offset up to half of the predicted summer warming over Europe, they added.

The findings were outlined in London over the weekend at the Royal Society discussion meeting "Geoengineering - Taking Control of our Planet's Climate".


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Food security to be affected by climate change: PAU VC Read more: Food security to be affected by climate change: PAU VC

LUDHIANA: Noting that farm productivity would see significant drop due to climate change, Punjab Agricultural University (PAU) Vice Chancellor MS Kang has said food security in both developing and developed countries is likely to be affected because of change in weather.

The loss related to climate change is expected to hit developing countries hard, as agriculture employs extensive number of people being their economic mainstay, he said.

Kang shared his views while addressing a technical session 'Towards Climate Resilient Development-Way Forward' during a National Policy Dialogue On Climate Change Actions in New Delhi, said a release issued here.

The session was organised by M S Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF), Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC), United National Development Program (UNDP), World Conservation Union (IUCN), Development Alternatives and Watershed Development Trust (DAWDT).

Kang said that the climate change and weather forecasting were the key focus areas for global food security.

The issue is being pro-actively pursued in the country as discussions and conferences are being arranged on the subject, he said.

The climate change can have multiple effects on agriculture and human living as it impacts health, purchasing power and market flows, said Kang.

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Temperature rise to hit water, forest, health, agriculture: Report Read more: Temperature rise to hit water, forest, health, agriculture

NEW DELHI: India's key sectors like water, forest, health and agriculture will be affected in a major way due to the increase in net temperature by 1.7- 2.2 degree celsius in another 20 years in the four climate hotspots.

The "Climate Change and India: a 4x4 assessment" report, which was released today providing an assessment of impact of climate change in 2030, also predicts an increase in precipitation (rain, snow and storm) in the eco-fragile areas of the Himalayas, North-east, Western Ghats and the coastal region.

Prepared by India's Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA), the report says "the net increase in annual temperatures in 2030 with respect to 1970s would range between 1.7 degree Celsius to 2.2 degree Celsius with extreme temperature increasing by 1 to 40 degree Celsius with maximum increase in coastal regions."

The maximum and minimum temperatures are also projected to increase in 2030s compared to 1970s while the extreme preciptation events are likely to increase by 5-10 days in all the four regions.

Similarly, as per report, all the regions are projected to experience an increase in precipitation in 2030s as against 1970s and the maximum increase will be in the Himalayan region while minimum in the North East.

With changes in key climate variables such as temperature and humidity, sea level along the Indian coast has been rising at the rate of 1.3mm/year and is likely to do so in consonance with the global sea level rise in the future, the report says.

Further projections indicate that the frequency of cyclones is likely to decrease in 2030s, with increase in cyclonic intensity.

On agriculture front, the report says irrigated rice in all the regions are likely to gain in yields marginally due to warming as compared to the rain-fed crop as the irrigated rice tends to benefit from CO2 fertilization effect.

Speaking at a function after the report was released by science and technology minister Kapil Sibal and economist M S Swaminathan, environment minister Jairam Ramesh said there was no country in the world that is as vulnerable to climate change as India.

"I am glad that for the first time such a comprehensive assessment has been undertaken," he added.

This is the second report from the INCCA which had in May released the country's greenhouse gas emission data for 2007, making India the first developed country to released update data on the emission.

The network launched last year has been visualised as a mechanism to evolve institutions as well as engage other agencies already working in the area of climate change.

Read more: Temperature rise to hit water, forest, health, agriculture: Report - The Times of India http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/environment/global-warming/Temperature-rise-to-hit-water-forest-health-agriculture-Report/articleshow/6936460.cms#ixzz16djk96sy
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Troposphere is warming too, decades of data show Read more: Troposphere is warming too, decades of data show

WASHINGTON: Not only is Earth's surface warming, but the troposphere -- the lowest level of the atmosphere, where weather occurs -- is heating up too, U.S. and British meteorologists reported on Monday.

In a review of four decades of data on troposphere temperatures, the scientists found that warming in this key atmospheric layer was occurring, just as many researchers expected it would as more greenhouse gases built up and trapped heat close to the Earth.

This study aims to put to rest a controversy that began 20 years ago, when a 1990 scientific report based on satellite observations raised questions about whether the troposphere was warming, even as Earth's surface temperatures climbed.

The original discrepancy between what the climate models predicted and what satellites and weather balloons measured had to do with how the observations were made, according to Dian Seidel, research meteorologist for the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

It was relatively easy to track surface temperatures, since most weather stations sat on or close to the ground, Seidel said by telephone from NOAA's Air Resources Laboratory in Silver Spring, Maryland, outside Washington.

Measuring temperature in the troposphere is more complicated. Starting in the late 1950s, scientists dangled weather instruments from big balloons, with the data sent back to researchers by radio transmission as the balloons rose through the six miles (10 km) of the troposphere.

BALLOONS AND SATELLITES

The first satellite data on troposphere temperature was gathered in 1979, but neither weather balloons nor these early satellite weather observations were accurate measures of climate change, Seidel said.

"They're weather balloons and weather satellites, they're not climate balloons and climate satellites," she said. "They're not calibrated precisely enough to monitor small changes in climate that we expect to see."

When the 1990 study was published, showing a lack of warming in the troposphere especially in the tropics, it prompted some to question the reality of surface warming and whether climate models could be relied upon, NOAA said in a statement.

This latest paper reviewed 195 cited papers, climate model results and atmospheric data sets, and found no fundamental discrepancy between what was predicted and what is happening in the troposphere. It is warming, the study found.

This study is one of several published this year pushing back against those who doubt the reality of climate change and the role human activities play in it.

Scientists at NOAA, the United Kingdom Met Office and the University of Reading contributed to the paper, published on Monday in Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews - Climate Change, a peer-reviewed journal.

International climate change talks are set to start on Nov. 29 in Cancun, Mexico, but prospects for a global deal to curb greenhouse emissions are considered slim.

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India faces major climate changes by 2030: Report Read more: India faces major climate changes by 2030: Report

NEW DELHI: A new report says India could be 2 degrees Celsius (3.8 F) warmer than 1970s levels within 20 years - a change that would disrupt rain cycles and wreak havoc on the country's agriculture and freshwater supplies, experts said Wednesday.

More flooding, more drought and a spreading of malaria would occur, as the disease migrates northward into Kashmir and the Himalayas, according to the report by 220 Indian scientists and 120 research institutions.

The temperature rise, which could be even more extreme along the coasts, would cause drastic changes in India's rain cycles that threaten water supplies and agriculture - the key source of livelihood for most of India's 1.2 billion people.

The report comes out just weeks before the Nov. 29 start of the U.N. climate summit in Cancun, Mexico, where nations will try again to reach a global agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions thought to contribute to global warming.

Last year's UN climate summit in Copenhagen ended with an international pledge to limit the rise of the Earth's average temperature to 2 degrees Celsius (3.8 F) above levels recorded before industries began pumping carbon dioxide into the air 200 years ago.

The new report by the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment exceeds UN expert predictions that suggested India could be 2 degrees warmer by 2050.

"There is no country in the world that is as vulnerable, on so many dimensions, to climate change as India is,'' environment minister Jairam Ramesh said in a statement released with the report on Tuesday. "We must continue this focus on rigorous climate change science.''

India's many ecosystems and proximity to the equator make it particularly sensitive to climate change, experts say. The fact most of the country relies on freshwater sources, rather than desalinating sea water, amplifies the threat of global warming on society.

The report also says sea levels will continue to rise, threatening India's more than 4,000 miles (6,400 kilometers) of coastline.

Mangrove forests along West Bengal's coastlines "would definitely go underwater,'' said Sidarth Pathak, a climate policy official with Greenpeace India. Coastal cities such as Calcutta, Mumbai and Chennai might also face a threat, he said.

"This study enables India to look at its need to adapt to change,'' Pathak said. "It will put pressure on the Indian government and international governments to act, and show that India is a vulnerable country.''

India has pledged to spend 2 percent of its gross domestic product on projects to deal with the affects of climate change. Activists have said that's not enough, given the challenges in providing water, food and disease prevention to such a large population.

In Cancun, countries are hoping for an agreement that commits nations to curb emissions, to share technologies, and to help poor nations fund projects for coping with a warming planet.

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As sea level rises, Chennai areas face submersion threat Read more: As sea level rises, Chennai areas face submersion threat

CHENNAI: Imagine a Chennai city where well-known, low-lying residential areas Velachery, Madipakkam and Kotturpuram may permanently be submerged by sea water. The Napier bridge may be seen rising directly out of the sea, while the mouth of the river Cooum is pushed inland to open into the sea before the Napier Bridge. Island Grounds may cease to exist. This is a picture painted by environmental experts on the grim scenario that might confront Chennai if the sea level rises by one metre.

With over 70% of the population living along the coast, the displacement of human population may be massive. Says Professor J S Mani of the Ocean Engineering department in IIT Madras: ''The only solution is that the government must plan well in advance and decongest the coastal areas.''

There is a general consensus among ocean scientists that the sea level may rise by as much as one metre in the next 50 years. While the reports vary in their projections of the speed of the rise, it is commonly concluded that a significant rise in the sea level would occur during the later years of the 21st century.

Experts point out that Chennai, as a low-lying area with an average height of 2 metres above mean sea level, is likely to face several changes. The Coromandel coast comprises a series of sand dunes along the shoreline after the beach. This area is of higher elevation. The elevation decreases further inland.

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Green revolution over, agri yields staring at dead end? Read more: Green revolution over, agri yields staring at dead end?The monsoon bounty this yea

The monsoon bounty this year is expected to put the smiley back on the agriculture output graph. The government has quickly announced a target foodgrain production of 244.5 million tonnes for 2010-11, 10mt more than the highest till date – 234.47mt achieved in 2008-09. Even in the wake of last year's monsoon failure, wheat production in the rabi cycle breached the 80mt mark for the first time ever.

But are these recent successes signs of a much-needed turnaround or are they temporarily masking a larger crisis in Indian agriculture that has been limiting growth in the medium term and threatening our food security?

A revealing international study that used US satellite data to track year-on-year changes in yields, warns that environmental drivers could be pushing agriculture towards stagnation. The findings indicate that India's Green Revolution may have reached unsustainable levels, at least in some parts of the country, and may hit a wall unless massive policy interventions address the situation.

The paper, Decadal Variations in NDVI and Food Production in India, published earlier this year in the open-access Remote Sensing journal, compares agriculture production in two decades – 1982-92 and 1996-06 – and finds a distinct slowdown in growth rates in the latter decade for both kharif and rabi crops. The study points to two worrying environmental factors, among others, that may explain the low growth during 1996 to 2006 – increasing pressure on groundwater due to unsustainable use and rising temperatures in the subcontinent.

The authors, researchers mostly based in the US, used a measure known as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which calculates crop yields using satellite data. For the study, year-on-year data from the US meteorological sensor, the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, was used.

As compared to the previous decade, the study found a 50% drop in growth rates in the kharif season during 1996-2006 and, more alarmingly, almost zero growth in the winter crop (rabi). The slowdown was more pronounced in the main foodgrain producing states in north India and in the central portion of the country.

"Around 30% of the total cropland area of India showed a statistically significant decline in growth rate of greenness index during the rabi season," lead author Cristina Milesi from California State University, Monterey Bay, told TOI.

The rabi slowdown is significant because it's primarily dependent on irrigation, increasingly, groundwater. Not surprisingly, states such as Punjab and Haryana where rabi yields are stagnating, also overlap with regions where groundwater use has reached critical levels. The paper estimates that in the absence of any irrigation, it would require 30% to 150% increase in local annual rainfall to sustain the rate of growth in rabi crops seen during 1982-2002 in large portions of peninsular India.

"Our calculations of increase in crop water demand are greatest over the northwest and central-southern peninsula and coincide to a good approximation with areas mapped as suffering from groundwater overexploitation," the paper notes.

Says K Krishna Kumar, climate scientist at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and one of the authors, "What could also be contributing to the fall in growth is accelerated warming since the mid-1990s. Our paper notes that over the past decade, average temperatures have increased by 0.25 degrees Celsius during the kharif season and by 0.6 degrees during rabi. We cite other studies which have linked the recent warming to a potentially reduced rabi crop yield by 6%."

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The birthday candles in your veins

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

DNA artefacts from white blood cells offer forensic clues to a person's age.

Blood test – forensic sceneBlood found at crime scenes could help to narrow down the age of a suspect.

A drop of blood can provide a rough estimate of a person's age, helping forensic investigators to draw physical profiles of suspects and victims who leave few other traces behind.

Conventional forensic DNA analysis matches samples gathered from crime scenes and compares them with those of people identified in an investigation or in a database. Increasingly, however, investigators are building physical profiles of individuals on the basis of their DNA alone. For instance, six genetic markers can indicate whether a person has blue or brown eyes1.

In a paper published online today in Current Biology2, researchers based in the Netherlands report a genetic signature for a person's age — to within a decade or so — in a type of white blood cell known as a T cell. Other means of accurately determining a person's age rely on skeletal remains. But, in "most cases you don't have bones or teeth you simply have stains", says Manfred Kayser, a geneticist at Erasmus University Medical Center in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, and a co-author on the paper.

T-cell trace

While scouring the scientific literature for a molecular signature of age present in blood, Kayser and his team realized that the organ that pumps out T cells, the thymus, is gradually replaced with fat tissue as people age.

Previous research has shown that this process leaves behind genetic artefacts. Every time a T cell matures in the thymus it rearranges its DNA to create a molecular receptor that can recognize pathogens and other foreign molecules, leaving loops of excised DNA behind. These loops are present only in newly made T cells, says Kayser, so they provide a reliable stopwatch to time the decline of the thymus and ageing in general.

Kayser and his team quantified the levels of one particular T-cell loop sequence in 195 Dutch volunteers, and plotted them against their biological ages, which ranged from a few weeks to 80 years old. The correlation wasn't perfect, but the researchers found that they could estimate a person's age to within 9 years fairly accurately. When the researchers divided the participants into age groups spanning 20 years, the T-cell loop sequence proved an even better proxy for generational age.

"The correlation is pretty impressive," says Mark Jobling, a geneticist at the University of Leicester, UK. "How useful it will be in practice as a forensic tool remains to be seen, although there will certainly be forensic cases where it will help as an investigative tool."

Disease doubts

Kayser doesn't expect that simply identifying a suspect's age, give or take a decade, will break open many cold cases. But the technique could be combined with other sources of evidence to rule suspects in or out. The approach could also help investigators to identify victims from disasters, he says. Field ecologists could adopt the technique to identify the ages of animals based on blood that they leave behind.

Christopher Phillips, a forensic genetics researcher at the University of Santiago de Compostela in Chile, calls the approach "a breakthrough". But its wide margin of error means that it will be most useful for distinguishing young from old people, he says.

Before that happens, researchers will need to determine whether T-cell loops correlate with age in other ethnic groups, says Kayser. A potential limitation of the technique is that it could be a poor judge of age in people with HIV, diabetes and other conditions that perturb T cells. "There are a huge number of disease states that affect thymic function," says Alice Lorenzi, a rheumatologist at Newcastle University, UK.

Kayser also stresses that his team's technique would be used to identify suspects during investigations, not to convict them. "This will never be a tool that ends up in front of a court," he says.

  • References

    1. Liu, F. et al. Curr. Biol. 19, R192-R193 (2009).
    2. Zubakov, D. et al. Curr. Biol. 20, R970-R971 (2010).
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Drugs to treat HIV found to prevent infection

Antiretroviral drugs shown to cut HIV transmission to men at high risk.

HIV patient hand with antiretroviralStudy participants who reported taking retrovirals 90% of the time had a 72.8% reduction in risk of becoming infected with HIV.

The antiretroviral medicines taken by patients infected with HIV could also protect people not yet infected but at high risk of becoming so, according to the results of a large-scale clinical trial. But questions remain about whether such a strategy would work as an HIV prevention policy.

The US$43.6-million study, published today in the New England Journal of Medicine, included 2,499 subjects from Peru, Ecuador, South Africa, Brazil, Thailand and the United States who were born male (although 1% now identify themselves as women), who had had sex with men, and who showed no HIV antibodies in their blood at the time of enrolling in the study1.

The study "provides the first proof" that pills that control HIV in infected people can also help prevent new infections, says Robert Grant, an HIV researcher at the University of California, San Francisco, and the study's lead author.

In the trial, called the Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Initiative (iPrEx), one group of patients received a daily dose of a single pill — marketed as Truvada by drug firm Gilead Sciences of Foster City, California — combining emtricitibane and tenofovir, two oral antiretroviral medicines. The other group received a placebo. Of the 100 participants that became infected with HIV during the course of the study, 36 were from the former group and 64 from the latter, translating to a nearly 44% reduction in risk for subjects taking the active pills.

Participants who received the drugs and who reported taking their pills 90% of the time experienced a much higher protection rate of 72.8%. And those who had high levels of the drugs in their blood showed an even greater degree of protection: 92%.

"With a vaccine, it either works or it doesn't work, but here it really depends on the individual who's taking it," says Anthony Fauci, director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).

Prevention questions

The NIAID provided $27.9 million in funding for the study, with the rest provided by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The drugs were donated by Gilead Sciences.

Different US agencies such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration must now begin to look closely at the study's findings to determine how it might fit in with ongoing HIV prevention programmes, Fauci says.

"This is going to be a very active topic of discussion," he says.

He cautions, however, that although men who have sex with men represent one of the highest-risk groups for HIV infection, the study must be validated in other at-risk populations.

The findings are encouraging and could help some people, but the strategy's effectiveness still needs to be determined, says Daniel Halperin, an HIV prevention expert at Harvard School of Public Health in Boston, Massachusetts, who was not involved with the study.

"These kinds of things could be very useful, obviously, but they could backfire," he says, for example by making people feel safe enough to have unprotected sex or engage in other risky behaviours.

Subjects in the study, however, actually decreased their risk-taking behaviour, notes Grant, stressing that the approach will need to be used "with other prevention services that will have to go along with it as a package".

Costs and benefits

A follow-up phase of the study will try to develop better approaches to compliance with the drugs, which can cause nausea. It will also track side effects, as well as whether participants become resistant to the therapy over a longer time scale than possible in the original study.

There are also questions of cost and access, says Halperin — especially in regions such as Africa, where a huge number of individuals are at high risk of contracting the virus. "There, we can't even get retrovirals to the people that need them", much less those who are not yet infected, he says.

In the developing world, the combination drug used in the trial is available for as little as $0.40 per day, Grant says, but this is no small sum for a daily regimen.

"With HIV we've shown that behavioural changes and things like circumcision really make a difference," Halperin says, adding that prioritizing a biomedical solution over proven behavioural strategies may be impractical.

Some researchers also question whether providing preventative antiretrovirals for high-risk individuals will be able to help slow the spread of the disease in a population, says James Kublin, director of the HIV Vaccine Trials Network and a global health researcher at the University of Washington, both in Seattle. "The best long-term hope to end the epidemic continues to be a safe, portable and effective vaccine," Kublin adds.

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